Iran’s crude oil output is expected to remain steady at around 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, its OPEC governor said on Thursday, February 23, showing no sign of a slowdown despite the West’s sanctions against its oil exports, according to Reuters.

“The production for this month will be the same as the previous, around 3.5 (million bpd),” Mohammad Ali Khatibi said. “There will be no change, things are going as normal here.”

Ahead of a European Union embargo, effective July 1, European buyers have been cutting back on supplies from Iran and some of its biggest customers in Asia have also reduced purchases.

Iran would lower its oil exports if it sees the demand for its crude dropping, Iran’s deputy oil minister said on Wednesday. But Khatibi said there was no need so far to reduce Iran’s output.

“We still have customers, everything is normal,” added Khatibi, Iran’s representative on the board of governors of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

China, India and Japan, the top three buyers of Iranian oil, together buy about 45 percent of Iran’s crude exports.

While India has said it will not implement the sanctions, it, along with China and Japan are planning cuts of at least 10 percent in Iranian crude imports as U.S. measures make it difficult for the top Asian buyers to keep doing business with the OPEC producer.

Turkey, which buys nearly 40 percent of its crude oil from Iran, has so far been a loyal customer and is likely to stick with Iranian oil.

Citing industry estimates, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that up to 1 million bpd of Iran’s 2.6 million bpd of exports could be replaced by alternative supplies once EU sanctions begin.

The Islamic Republic’s oil output has fallen over the last two years by more than 250,000 bpd, or 6.6 percent, and could lose more than 300,000 bpd this year and a further 200,000 bpd in 2013, Vienna-based consultants JBC Energy estimate.

Demonstrators in Tehran stormed the building of the British Embassy.

Iranian police initially did not try to interfere with the thugs, and then blocked access to the Embassy. Those who still managed to reach the territory of the British mission will be detained, reports AFP.

Reuters reports that the protesters got inside the building and threw the Embassy documents out of the windows. There are several dozen people inside the building.

Iranian television reported that during the anti-British demonstrations, protesters pelted the embassy with stones and Molotov cocktails, smashing several windows.

The demonstrators tore and burned the British flag, replacing it with Iranian.

Protests in Iran have been caused by the introduction of the UK for new sanctions against Tehran.

According to RA President, high level of the political dialogue, active cultural, economic and educational cooperation, as well as support in different formats promotes confidence and understanding between the sates.

The sides pointed out successful implementation of various joint projects in energy, chemical industry, agriculture, science and technology, defense, culture and education.

The Presidents discussed China’s participation in the construction of Armenia-Iran railway, noting that operation of the joint Armenian-Chinese venture Shanxi-Nairit testifies to development of bilateral ties between the states.

Serzh Sargsyan and Hu Jintao expressed readiness to undertake extra efforts to expand Armenian-Chinese cooperation.

Davutoglu confirmed Turkey’s commitment to Armenia-Turkey normalization process and declared it does not approve sanctions against Iran.

He told RA Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that “Turkey adheres to the process and works on creative ideas for its advancement.”

Clinton informed Davutoglu of the progress in reconciliation within OSCE Minsk Group.

Davutoglu told Clinton that Azerbaijan should also have been invited to the summit and expressed wish that the Armenian issue would not overshadow Turkey-U.S. relations each year.

“China shares U.S. concern over Iran’s nuke program and overall goal of preservation of the non-proliferation regime,” U.S. NSC Senior Director for Asian Affairs Jeff Bader stated at an April 12 briefing.

In the course of the meeting Obama and Hu Jintao emphasized their agreement that Iran must meet international nuclear non-proliferation obligations, Bader said.

The two Presidents agreed to give instructions to their delegations to work on a resolution on sanctions with the P5-plus-1 . “The resolution will make clear to Iran the costs of pursuing a nuclear program that violates international obligations and responsibilities,” Bader Said.

Priorities attributed to each issue by the Turkish and US sides as well as their stances on the same issues may differ from one another, however. While Obama is expected to press Turkey for parliamentary ratification of protocols signed with Armenia last October for the normalization of relations, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is expected to respond to this pressure by urging the US leader to exert more efforts towards the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, a territorial dispute between Yerevan and Turkey’s ally Baku.

As for the Iran issue, the US administration is pressing hard this month for a new UN Security Council resolution that would tighten sanctions on the Islamic republic for refusing to engage in talks about its nuclear program.

Nonetheless, just ahead of his departure from İstanbul on Sunday, Erdoğan explicitly indicated that Turkey, currently one of the rotating members of the council, believes that diplomatic means for resolving the issue have not yet been exhausted.

Erdoğan, speaking at a press conference ahead of his departure for Washington, was reminded of news reports suggesting that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had cancelled a planned trip to Washington for the nuclear security conference, after learning that Egypt and Turkey intended to raise the issue of Israel’s assumed atomic arsenal at the meeting.

“We never want nuclear armament in our region. We are against it no matter which country possesses it. Whether it is Israel or Iran, it doesn’t change,” Erdoğan said, while noting that there hasn’t yet been a precise finding on whether Iran’s nuclear program is aimed at possessing nuclear weapons.

Recalling that Iranian leaders assured him that their aim is to use nuclear energy only for peaceful purposes, Erdoğan, however, added: “I can’t read their minds.” The prime minister, meanwhile, also admitted that Iran was not sufficiently “transparent” in its relationship with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). “It wouldn’t be right to make judgments based on possibilities. We want the resolution of the issue through intensive diplomacy,” he said, as he slammed Israel for having nuclear weapons and insisting on not becoming a member of the IAEA.

Erdoğan said he would call the international community’s attention to this point: “You do what you want when you are not a member.”

Israel is believed to be the only nuclear-armed power in the Middle East but has never confirmed or denied it. It has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

In response to another question, Erdoğan said he and Obama would try to talk about various bilateral and regional issues within a short time, adding: “The priority issue is developments regarding Armenia.”

Turkey’s ambassador to the US, Namık Tan, returned to Washington on Tuesday after being recalled to Ankara last month in protest of a step by the US Congress towards declaring the Ottoman-era killings of Anatolian Armenians a genocide. The Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representative passed a resolution declaring the killings genocide, but it is unclear whether the full House will vote on it.

In Washington, Tan said on Friday that he came back after assurances by the Obama administration that it would oppose the congressional action and not itself label the killings genocide. “We have received some satisfactory messages. I hope there will be a new chapter,” he said.

In İstanbul, Erdoğan said, “We have always been behind the letter sent to Mr. Kocharian,” referring to his 2005 letter to then-Armenian President Robert Kocharian, inviting him to establish a joint commission of historians and experts from both Turkey and Armenia to study the events of 1915 using documents from the archives of Turkey, Armenia and any other country believed to have played a part in the issue.

Erdoğan did not elaborate on his scheduled meeting with Armenia’s President Serzh Sarksyan on the sidelines of the meeting in Washington and instead focused on the importance Turkey has attached to making progress in efforts by the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The Minsk Group has striven to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a territorial dispute between Baku and Yerevan, for more than 17 years.

“The Minsk trio should be much more active, should exert efforts that would produce a result,” Erdoğan said, noting that he had discussed the issue earlier with Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. He also said he discussed the issue with French President Nicolas Sarkozy during an official visit to Paris last week.

France, Russia and the US are the three co-chairs of the Minsk Group.

TODAY’S ZAMAN ANKARA

Obama made clear last week that Iran and North Korea were excluded from new limits on the use of U.S. atomic weapons — something Tehran interpreted as a threat from a long-standing adversary to attack it with nuclear bombs.

“The recent statement by the U.S. president … implicitly intimidates the Iranian nation with the deployment of nuclear arms,” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a televised meeting with military and security officials.

“This statement is very strange and the world should not ignore it since in the 21st century, which is the era of support for human rights and campaigning against terrorism, the head of a country is threatening to use nuclear war.”

Foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told the semi-official Fars news agency Iran would lodge a formal complaint to the United Nations, a move backed by a letter signed by 255 of Iran’s 290 members of parliament.

Obama is pressing other global powers to agree to a fourth round of U.N. sanctions against Iran over its refusal to halt nuclear work that the West suspects is aimed at making bombs, a charge Iran denies.

Reflecting fears of attack on its nuclear sites from the United States or its closest Middle East ally Israel, the defense ministry said Iran had started producing a prototype of an advanced anti-aircraft missile system.

“The Mersad air defense system … is able to destroy modern aircraft at low and medium range altitude,” the ISNA news agency on Sunday quoted Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi as saying.

“The mass production of this product has begun and in the course of the current year a large number of them will be delivered to the armed forces,” he said.

While Iran hopes the development of its own system will make it more self-sufficient in weapons defense, it is also urging Russia to resist Western pressure not to deliver the S-300 missile defense system it has ordered.

On Friday, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran’s nuclear program was “irreversible” despite limits on importing foreign technology and the threat of new sanctions, and he unveiled a prototype of an improved centrifuge which would enrich uranium faster than existing models.

Western analysts say Iran has exaggerated progress in the past to bolster domestic pride about its nuclear program and to improve its bargaining position with major powers.

The head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization played down the idea that Iran faced big technical hurdles.

“Iran’s nuclear issue is not a technical issue … we are not in a hurry. Second generation centrifuges will be mass produced in the next few months … in a year we will have prototype cascades of the third generation,” Ali Akbar Salehi told ISNA, Reuters reported.

He called Obama amateur, threatening U.S. enemies with nuke, which proves lack of knowledge. U.S. politicians have “cowboy syndrome,” who at the slightest provocation call in the arms for solving their problems, Iranian leader reckons.

According to him, Obama’s words should be taken as a threat to use the nuclear and biological weapons against the states reluctant to obey the will and pressure of the U.S., IslamNews reports.

Yezidi sheep farmers say they face ruin after a sudden surge in demand from Iran, which saw a third of the country’s flock exported last year.

The Yezidis, a minority who speak a language similar to Kurdish, traditionally dominate the lamb and mutton trade in Armenia but say the resulting sheep shortage is forcing them out of business.

Qamil Shadoyan lives near Yerevan and, until last year, had 50 sheep. His sons looked after his flock, while he sold the meat to picnickers or pilgrims on the Yerevan-Garni-Geghard highway. In a normal week, he slaughtered seven or eight sheep, and even visited distant villages to buy lambs.

But in August last year, it all changed. An Iranian trader offered to buy his whole flock, offering 25,000 drams (70 US dollars) for each sheep. This seemed like a dream come true, until he tried to replace his animals in nearby villages and realised their livestock had been bought as well.

“The prices for sheep were rising from one day to the next. We thought at the beginning that the situation would stabilise, but it became worse and worse,” he said.

According to official figures, in the final three months of last year, Armenia exported 140,000 sheep, compared to a total of 13,000 exported in the previous five years put together.

Gevorg Sahakyan, an expert in regional trade, said the boom appeared to be a side-effect of a sudden sharp collapse in exports from Syria, which had hit Saudi Arabia – a major sheep importer.

He assumes, therefore, that the sheep exported to Iran were actually intended for re-export to Saudi Arabia since Iran is already a major exporter and was unlikely to need them for its internal market.

“Essentially, with the help of the sheep imported from Armenia, Iran is trying to restore the disrupted balance in the regional sheep market,” he said.

The sharp increase in exports shocked Armenia’s Yezidi community, especially those whose sheep were among the 32,500 exported in September, at the start of the boom. They are furious and feel they lost out on the higher prices later in the year. After November, the average sheep cost 70-80,000 drams (220-240 dollars).

By the end of the year, Armenia was suffering from a dearth of sheep and was forced to import them from Georgia.

Omar Mamoyan, a member of the National Council of the Union of Yezidis, and a consultant for minority issues in the Agrarian-Farmer Union of Armenia, said that half of the ewes in Armenia had been exported, so there would be a very low amount of lambs born for the next few years.

“We oppose the fact that they removed our sheep, and that the prices rose. Maybe this benefited ten Yezidis, but for the whole nation – for Armenians, as well as Yezidis – it was bad,” he said.

Aziz Tamoyan, the official leader of the world’s Yezidis, was also concerned by the export surge.

“We will need ten years to restore the previous size of the flock. Armenia’s sheep-rearing has had a crisis, and most sheep belong to the Yezidis. There are Yezidi villages, when the number of sheep has reduced tenfold,” he said.

He said that the Yezidis who lost out in their deals have been forced to leave the country, and Shadoyan was considering such a step himself, now he has lost his livelihood.

“Armenians do not want to buy mutton now, because it is twice as expensive as beef,” he said.

He and many of his fellow Yezidi sheep-dealers blame the government for failing to regulate the market. They say they would not have sold their breeding-age ewes had they known the surge of demand would continue – a position also held by Tamoyan.

“The agriculture minister promised me that only rams would be exported, but this did not happen. What the minister said does not correspond with reality,” he said.

The agriculture ministry is considerably more relaxed about the issue, however, saying that the Yezidis are overstating the significance of what happened for commercial reasons. Ashot Hovhannisyan, head of the ministry’s livestock department, said mostly ewes too old to breed had been exported.

“When the sheep began to be exported, the Iranians began to deal, not with Yezidi middlemen, but directly with farmers. They found Armenian peasants and told them they would buy at once 40 of their 100 sheep. Our Yezidi colleagues were removed from the process. This is the whole reason for their dissatisfaction,” he said.

All the same, the Yezidis are not happy. They fear that, when the lambing season finishes at the end of May, Iranian traders will once more start buying up the lambs, leaving them squeezed out of the market.

The agriculture ministry has planned to develop sheep farming by increasing the size of the national flock to 1.5 million from a million, and by importing new breeds from the North Caucasus, from Austria and from Germany.

But this is not enough for many Yezidis, who demand that all exports should be banned for at least two years to allow numbers to recover.

Speaking of the current situation in the region, Mr. Tanter pointed out that, the cooperation between Moscow and Washington on missile defense as a part of an extension of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty “is much more likely to involve the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan than when the Bush administration was negotiating with the Russians”.

“But if the Iranian regime objects because Baku and Tehran have signed a mutual agreement not to allow their territory to be used by third countries for hostile actions, then Azerbaijan may be forced to choose between closer relations with the superpowers or appeasing the Iranian regime”, Tanter noted.

“As of now, Azerbaijan can be a military ally of Washington and close neighbor of Tehran at the same time. But in the context of missile defense or military strikes by the United States against Iranian nuclear facilities, then Azerbaijan will have to choose,” the expert said.

“Baku would be much safer better off under the joint cooperation of Moscow and Washington than under the sway of Tehran”, Tanter emphasized.